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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(9:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model