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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(8:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to DAL 33, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 31 for -2 yards (26-J.Robinson). PENALTY on TB-43-P.Barber, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 31.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.16 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP