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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(7:05) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to DAL 4, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP