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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.73 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP