Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 80

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 89-R.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 32-O.Scandrick at DAL 48. 32-O.Scandrick to DAL 48 for no gain (34-C.Sims).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.38 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -0.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model