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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.76 EP
KICK +2.60 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP