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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to TEN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 32 for 16 yards (51-F.Zombo).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.31 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP