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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 90

Tennessee Titans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to TEN 48, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-T.Hill to TEN 45 for 3 yards (50-N.Palmer; 26-A.Andrews).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.51 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 90, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EP