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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to TEN 20 for 16 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.52 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model