Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to KC 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 26. 10-T.Hill to KC 26 for no gain (52-A.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model