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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.76 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP