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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to TEN 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.31 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model