Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(1:45) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to KC 35, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-T.Hill to KC 35 for no gain (26-A.Andrews).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model