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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 13

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model