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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model