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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 6 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 1-C.Newton up the middle to ATL 45 for 2 yards (45-D.Jones; 97-G.Jarrett).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.50 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model