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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(:41) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.11 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP