Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(13:53) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to MIA 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-29-K.Seymour.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model