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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to BUF 16, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.14 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP