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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to BUF 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate to BUF 40 for 23 yards (57-T.Reilly; 4-M.Darr). Key block: J.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 22, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model