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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to MIA 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 28 for 9 yards (29-K.Seymour, 84-N.O'Leary).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model