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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 28

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 2-D.Carpenter 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.29 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model