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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 51

Miami Dolphins 28 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to BUF 11, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-57-T.Reilly.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 51, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model