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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 37

Miami Dolphins 28 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(:10) 3-A.Franks 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.10 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model