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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:34) 2-D.Carpenter 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.50 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP