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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 8

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP