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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 61

Green Bay Packers 28 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 10-J.Schum punts 47 yards to MIN 14, Center-61-B.Goode. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 14 for no gain (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.37 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model