Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 28

(4:11) 18-J.Locke punts 39 yards to GB 45, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde to MIN 44 for 11 yards (57-A.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.73 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model