Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to GB 44, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 47. 33-M.Hyde to GB 47 for no gain (47-K.McDermott).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model