Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 38 – Minnesota Vikings 19

(3:53) 10-J.Schum punts 38 yards to MIN 46, Center-61-B.Goode. 35-M.Sherels to GB 34 for 20 yards (29-K.Brice).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.26 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model