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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Green Bay Packers 38

What Actually Happened

(1:35) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph to GB 1 for 3 yards (48-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.84 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model