4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 4

New England Patriots 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP