Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

(12:56) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NE 39, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 47 for 8 yards (52-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.06 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model