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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 71

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 23 for 3 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.71 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model