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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 11

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 41

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model