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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 41 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to NYJ 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP