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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 33

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 41

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep left to 19-D.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.23 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP