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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 31

Cleveland Browns 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.60 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model