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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 4

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 27-K.Farrow right guard to CLE 1 for 3 yards (58-C.Kirksey; 41-T.Howard). 79 K Wiggins reported as eligible

The Three Options

GO +3.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.06 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 4, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model