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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 80

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(:53) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to CLE 23, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-M.Alford to CLE 31 for 8 yards (53-J.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.60 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP