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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LAC 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-I.Burse to LAC 25 for 8 yards (53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model