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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 8-D.Kaser punts 53 yards to CLE 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-M.Alford to CLE 32 for 4 yards (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.45 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 38, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model