4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LAC 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.54 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model