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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(:01) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.17 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.05 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model