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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:56) (Shotgun) 10-R.Griffin pass short right to 82-G.Barnidge to LAC 29 for 10 yards (20-D.Lowery).

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model