Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-J.Kerley to SF 36 for 12 yards (34-C.Reynolds). PENALTY on SF-38-J.Shepherd, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SF 24. Penalty on SF-30-P.Iworah, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.24 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model