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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 41

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP