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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 22 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(:07) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to LA 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.39 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -0.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model