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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 82

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to ARI 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.08 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP