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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 36

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(9:14) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 14-J.Nelson ran ob at LA 4 for 32 yards. Los Angeles challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.89 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -2.07 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model